Dallas Home Prices Now Almost 20% Higher Than Before Recession

Dallas-area home prices are at an all-time high and are now almost 20 percent higher than their prerecession peak.  Dallas-area prices were up 9.3 percent year-over-year in the latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index report.  There’s no sign of a Dallas home market cool down in the latest nationwide price report.  In factDallas-area home prices are at an all time high in the Case-Shiller report.  Local prices have jumped almost 40 percent since early 2012.

Case-Shiller’s study tracks over time the prices of specific single-family homes located in each metropolitan area. The index survey does not include condominiums and townhouses. It only covers pre-owned properties — not new construction.

-          Dallas Morning News, December 29, 2015

Dallas Home Prices Jump 14% in May

Dallas Home Prices Jump 14% in May

North Texas home prices jumped by 14 percent in May – one of the largest year-over-year gains ever for the area.  Median home sales prices hit a record $215,000 last month for preowned single-family homes sold by real estate agents.  Home sales were up 6 percent from May 2014 with 9,484 properties sold.  It was the largest one-month sales total ever for North Texas, according to data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems.  With the strong sales, the number of homes listed with real estate agents in the area dropped 15 percent from this same time in 2014. There was a 2.4-month supply of homes in real estate agents’ multiple listing service, less than half of what is considered a normal inventory.  May’s strong home sales and price spike will put more pressure on the local housing market which is stretched with more buyers than sellers.  National surveys show that the Dallas-Fort Worth area is seeing the largest annual home price gains in the country. Prices here are rising at about three times the long-term average rate of residential appreciation for the area.

-         Dallas Morning News, June 9, 2015

Brinkmann Ranch – 500 New Homes – Begins in Frisco

The historic Brinkmann Ranch in frisco

Brinkmann Ranch –  500 New Homes – Begins in Frisco

More Homes to Follow

The sale of a key Frisco property will bring a new neighborhood with hundreds of homes, the first of potentially thousands of new homes to Frisco.  Plano-based homebuilder John Landon said Monday that he has bought part of the 3,500-acre Brinkmann Ranch – one of the largest undeveloped properties in Frisco.   Landon bought about 200 acres on the east side of the ranch on Coit Road.  His Landon Homes plans to begin construction soon on the new neighborhood.   “Landon also has an option to buy more property at Brinkmann Ranch.  The sprawling property located between Preston and Coit roads has for years been one of the most sought after development sites in Collin County.  Owner Baxter Brinkmann has been working with the City of Frisco to plan the property for multiple uses.

-          Dallas Morning News, February 24, 2015

A New 39-story Condo High Rise in the Arts District

      

The new 39-story condo next to Museum Tower    David Weekley InTown at 3 Locations

A New 39-story Condo High Rise in the Arts District

A 39-story tower planned for downtown Dallas’ Arts District will contain luxury apartments, artist lofts and retail space at Flora and Olive streets.   Developers will build a 39-story residential tower on one of the last vacant sites in the downtown Dallas Arts District.  The project at Flora and Olive streets is right next door to the Museum Tower and a block south of Klyde Warren Park.    The development will have 370 luxury apartments, 39 artists’ lofts and about 12,000 square feet of ground-floor retail space on the one-acre site between the Nasher Sculpture Center and the Meyerson Symphony Center.  “It’s a dense, urban project,” said Dallas architect Graham Greene, one of the partners in the project. “We took our inspiration from what has been done in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco in their downtowns.   “It helps complete the Arts District — we have storefront retail all along Flora,” Greene said. “It adds a population of 400 to 500 residents, which is huge.”   Construction begins fourth quarter 2015.

-          Dallas Morning News, February 25, 2015

DFW Home Prices Rise 9.1% in October

CoreLogic: DFW Home Prices Rise 9.1% in October

Dallas-Fort Worth area home prices increased 9.1. percent in October year-over-year, outpacing the national average, according to the latest CoreLogic report releasedTuesday.   Overall, the country's home prices have been slowing down in the past few months and has only grown at moderate levels, according to economists.  "Home price growth is moderating as we head into the late fall and is currently running at half the pace it was in the spring of 2014," said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at Corelogic, in a statement. "However, there are still pockets of strength, especially in several Texas markets, especially Dallas and Houston and other markets with strong economic fundamentals."   Based on CoreLogic projections, economists expect home prices to continue to rise, with home prices in over half of the United States to reach or surpass levels seen at the height of the housing bubble sometime in mid-2015.

-          Dallas Morning News, December 2, 2014

NEW HOME SALES JUMP, RESALES DIP

NEW HOME SALES JUMP, RESALES DIP

Existing home sales slumped 1.8% in August – their first retreat since March, according to the National Association of Realtors. This followed gains of 2% or more in each of the previous three months. News about new home purchases was better: the Census Bureau recorded an 18.0% increase for August, more than making up for two months of declines. Keep in mind that these numbers may be significantly revised (as an example, May’s apparent 18.6% advance in new home buying was reduced to an 8.3% gain a month later)

New Report Shows DFW is a Top Market for Home Sellers

New Report Shows DFW is a Top Market for Home Sellers

Dallas-Fort Worth is ranked as one of the best markets in the country to sell a house, according to a new study. Zillow Inc. said the D-FW area is the fourth best place in the country for home sellers.  “Sellers in the Bay Area, Seattle and Dallas have the most negotiating power, with final sale prices largely at or above asking,” Zillow’s report says.  Zillow said that overall home prices in D-FW were up 5.8 percent in August from a year ago and there were about 5 percent fewer houses on the market.  U.S. home values will continue to rise during the year ahead, but at a slower rate than last year, according to Zillow.  D-FW home prices are forecast to increase by about 4 percent in the next 12 months.

-          Dallas Morning News, September 19, 2014

Texas Economy Continues to Boom

Texas Economy Continues to Boom

The Texas economy grew faster in the second quarter, thanks largely to the booming energy industry and strong commercial real estate activity, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.  Employment growth is a big part of that picture. Texas’ annualized job growth rose from 2.4 percent in the first quarter to 4.3 percent in the second quarter — the strongest pace in nearly nine years. And that happened even though employment growth slowed in May and June.  The state’s job creation is outpacing the nation’s in all major industries except construction, manufacturing and other services in the first half of 2014. The Dallas Fed forecasts 3.5 percent employment growth this year, or 400,000 new jobs.

-          Dallas Morning News, August 11, 2014

Home Prices Rise by 10.5 Percent Year Over Year in April

CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rise by 10.5 Percent Year Over Year in April

 

June 03, 2014, Irvine, Calif. –

—––CoreLogic HPI Forecast Indicates National Home Prices Are Expected to Rise by 6.3 Percent from April 2014 to April 2015—

CoreLogic^® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its April CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 10.5 percent in April 2014 compared to April 2013. This change represents 26 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 2.1 percent in April 2014 compared to March 2014.*

At the state level, including distressed sales, no states posted depreciation in April 2014. Additionally, Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming all surpassed their previous home price peaks. In all, 23 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak home price appreciation.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 8.3 percent in April 2014 compared to April 2013 and 1.1 percent month over month compared to March 2014. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 1.0 percent month over month from April 2014 to May 2014 and by 6.3 percent (+/- 1.5 percent)** from April 2014 to April 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.8 percent month over month from 1.0 percent month over month from April 2014 to May 2014 and by 5.5 percent (+/- 1.5 percent)** from April 2014 to April 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices built on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“The weakness in home sales that began a few months ago is clearly signaling a slowdown in price appreciation,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. “The 10.5 percent increase in April, compared to a year earlier, was the slowest rate of appreciation in 14 months.”

“Home prices are continuing to rise as we head into the summer months,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The purchase market continues to suffer from a dearth of inventory which we expect will continue to drive prices up over the year.”

Highlights as of April 2014:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: California (+15.6 percent), Nevada (+14.8 percent), Hawaii (+14.1 percent), Oregon (+11.8 percent) and Michigan (+11.3 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Hawaii (+13.0 percent), California (+11.4 percent), Nevada (+11.1 percent), New York (+10.3 percent) and Florida (+10.2 percent).
• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to April 2014) was -14.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -10.8 percent.
• Excluding distressed sales, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in April.
• Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 26 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, this is the smallest year-over-year increase since February 2013.
• The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-38.6 percent), Florida (-34.5 percent), Arizona (-29.5 percent), Rhode Island (-28.8 percent) and West Virginia (-24.2 percent).
• Ninety-five of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in April 2014. The five CBSAs that did not show an increase were: Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; Worcester, Mass.-Conn.; New Haven-Milford, Conn.

*March data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval.

AFFORDABILITY OF U.S. CITIES FOR FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS

New Listings Reaching Normalcy
The increasing amount of new listings over the past 60 days in the DFW Metro market is showing signs that we are reaching a normal market for new listings. However, the huge inventory of buyers well exceed the supply of listings and all indications are that our strong seller’s market will continue for the next two to three years, with a continual increase in home prices. Approximately 18,900 homes came on the market in May 2014, compared to 17,468 new listings in May 2012. That is a healthy 9% increase. It was in May 2012 when the DFW Metro market made a significant correction, with May the last month of a buyer’s market to August 2012 when the region had become a seller’s market.

AFFORDABILITY OF U.S. CITIES FOR FIRST TIME HOME BUYERS
A starter home in San Francisco is $679,800, but in Cleveland it is only $102,100. But it takes a hefty income of
$137,129.55 in San Francisco to purchase the starter home. Dallas now ranks 16th in most expensive housing markets,
a huge change over the last many years when Dallas was always one of the most affordable cities.
CITY
Income Needed
Starter Home
Price Change from 2013
1. San Francisco
$137,129.55
$679,800
14.50%
2. San Diego
$98,534.22
$483,000
17.10%
3. New York City
$89,788.69
$388,900
5.60%
4. Los Angeles
$85,964.88
$406,200
17.60%
5. Boston
$79,820.01
$363,200
9.30%
6. Washington, DC
$78,503.56
$358,900
2.90%
7. Seattle
$73,851.06
$339,900
8.70%
8. Portland
$60,307.71
$271,900
10.30%
9. Denver
$59,892.46
$288,400
10.40%
10. Miami
$59,734.23
$259,000
15.10%
11. Sacramento
$58,113.87
$255,800
22.20%
12. Baltimore
$53,078.51
$224,500
-0.90%
13. Chicago
$52,866.88
$176,900
11%
14. Philadelphia
$50,546.25
$201,800
2.10%
15. Houston
$49,036.60
$184,600
12.80%
16. Dallas
$47,708.77
$174,800
9%
17. Minneapolis
$45,732.39
$188,200
10.30%
18. San Antonio
$44,506.00
$169,300
8%
19. Orlando
$43,243.95
$178,000
18.70%
20. Phoenix
$41,308.74
$194,300
15%
21. Tampa
$36,437.56
$145,000
7.40%
22. Atlanta
$34,183.44
$141,900
23.30%
23. Detroit
$32,250.30
$110,750
35.60%
24. Cincinnati
$31,850.18
$121,700
0.06%
25. St. Louis
$31,275.49
$120,500
8.60%
26. Pittsburgh
$30,177.78
$120,000
-1.80%
27. Cleveland
$29,788.67
$102,100
1.10%

Margaret Hunt Hill Bridge Dallas Texas

“The Bridge to Nowhere”

The naysayers proclaimed at one time that the proposed Margaret Hunt Hill Bridge at a cost of $93 million was simply a bridge to nowhere.  West Dallas was some of the worst slums in the city.   But the city of Dallas had vision, and today the area that once had some of the worst crime is being transformed into the newest hot spot.  Entire city blocks have been purchased for development.  Great restaurants have opened with more on the way.  There will be stunning views of the city from hundreds of new apartments now under construction.  Retail, shops, grocery stores – all now under construction.   A city once again transformed!

Energy Boom in Texas is Strong

Energy Boom in Texas is Strong

In Texas, oil and natural gas are synonymous with boom and bust.   A new field or a new technology brings a drilling rush and spectacular wealth.  Then just when nearly everyone has borrowed to the max, the bottom falls out.  Not this time, says John Auers, an oil analyst with Turner,  Mason & Co. engineering consultants in Dallas.   “This is a more sustainable and potentially longer-lasting boom,” he said.  “The early 80s were great times, but they became bad pretty quick.  That will not happen this time.”

-          Dallas Morning News. January 18, 2014

Can Shadow Inventory Help Relieve Price Pressure?

By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Home prices grew at the fastest pace in seven years in 2013. This is good news for property owners, both homeowners and landlords, as they witnessed, on average, a $32,000 gain in housing equity over the past two years.  The equity increase is an immediate financial gain for many.  For others, it marks only a partial recovery.  That is, at the depth of the downturn there were about 12 - 13 million underwater homeowners.  Now, that figure has been essentially slashed in half. 

There is however some bad news along with the quickly rising home values.  Rising home values make it more difficult for first-time homebuyers to make a purchase.  The conditions will be exacerbated by the near-certain case of a rising interest rate environment in the coming years.  In order to lessen the upward price pressure, more inventory is clearly needed.  Homebuilders are raising production, but too late and at too small increments.  Though the most recent housing starts of a 1.1 million annualized pace in November was a solid 30 percent increase from the prior year, the pace is still insufficient.  For all of 2013, housing starts look to finish at 930,000. The long-term, 50-year annual average is 1.5 million housing starts each year.  So the recent past six consecutive years of less than one million new housing units was bound to make an impact on the market.  Existing home inventory is at a 13-year low while newly constructed home inventory is at a 50-year low. 

However, can shadow inventory then save the day in pumping out more homes available for sale?  There are still 2.3 million mortgages that are seriously delinquent (more than 90 days late) or already in the foreclosure process.  This is not counting underwater homeowners, but people who are not paying their mortgage.  Surely, the majority of these distressed mortgages will not ever be made current.  They will instead become REO properties at some point.  Unfortunately, even though 2.3 million seriously delinquent mortgages sound large, they are significantly smaller than what the number had been.  Four years ago, there were 4.3 million in a similar state.  Just one year ago, there were 2.9 million delinquent mortgages.  The bottom line is that we should expect less of an increase in shadow inventory turning into visible inventory. 

Due to differing foreclosure processes, however, some states have a much larger overhang of shadow inventory than others.  In places like Arizona, a homeowner is quickly evicted for being delinquent.  In other places, principally the judicial foreclosure states, the court system has the final say and the overall process tends to drag out for a long time – with a 2 - 3 year time span not uncommon.

What are the judicial states with continuing, plentiful shadow inventory that can hit the market?  Interestingly, they are in states where inventory shortage is not a problem.  Home-price growth has been sluggish and these states still have a shadow looming over their market.  [Price data used is from the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®] The following table shows the serious delinquency rates now and at peak (usually in 2008 or 2009, ranked by the latest home price appreciation for each of the 50 states). 

As one can see, where the inventory would be most welcome, there appears just not enough shadow inventory to help relieve home prices.  The top three, fastest-appreciating states of Nevada, California, and Arizona have reduced seriously delinquent mortgages by roughly 60 - 80 percent.   On the opposite end of those states where seriously delinquent mortgages have been cut by only a little (to the tune of 10 percent or so) - namely New Jersey, New York, Vermont, Delaware, Connecticut, and New Mexico – home price growth has been sluggish.  There are few exceptions to the rule.  Washington D.C., for example, has made only slight progress in reducing seriously delinquent mortgages, yet home price growth has been strong, no doubt due to the stronger employment conditions and from the fact that it already had a relatively low delinquency peak figure.

Lawrence Yun is the chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®. He will be sharing his insider insights on the national and regional housing markets in this new, exclusive column for the Power Broker Report.

DFW Needs more homes NOW!

Construction Booms in Frisco

29 Showings in 3 Hours

One of our agents posted in Facebook that a hot new listing yesterday had 29 showings in three hours.   This unprecedented housing demand has never been seen in the DFW area before – few listings, so many buyers.

So Few Homes For Sale

In The Colony it is only 23 active pre-owned listings.    In Coppell, it is 51 active pre-owned listings, and in Flower Mound it is 118 active pre-owned listings.   Just name the market, and the inventory is LOW!   Ten years ago, Flower Mound averages 735 active listings in MLS, Coppell averaged 250 active MLS listings.  Projections for 2014 – a great time for sellers to make a move, the listing inventory will remain very, very low.

Home Prices Will Go Crazy

“Something is going to have to give (in the DFW market) or you are going to see prices go crazy,” said Mark Dotzour, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M.  “Forget about the housing bubble issue – this is really about supply and demand in the DFW market.”  Supplies of both new and pre-owned homes in the DFW market are at the lowest level in decades because of lower construction levels and record demand for properties.  “You have a huge increase in demand because of the change in buyer psychology,” Dotzour said.  “The normal supply side is constrained because of credit and availability of labor.”

-          Dallas Morning News, January 18, 2014

DFW Needs More Housing Now!

Texas economic growth is the envy of the nation.  But a shortage of homes for sale and soaring housing prices could threaten the state’s continued economic welfare, notes Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M.  “The number one economic challenge for Texas going forward is we don’t start building more homes and putting more subdivisions on the ground, the prices of housing will get so expensive that employers will no longer be able to attract workers.” 

-          Dallas Morning News, January 18, 2014

DFW Home Prices Escalating Rapidly

DFW area home prices are nearing ten percent over their peak in 2006, and continue to rapidly increase.  Ten years ago, nationwide pre-owned home prices were 30 percent higher than in the DFW area.  Now, national median home prices are less than 15 percent ahead of those in the DFW area, according to the National Association of Realtors.   And that margin continues to decrease monthly.   “When our housing isn’t cheap anymore, employers won’t be able to attract workers as easily,” notes Mark Dotzour, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M.  “It’s an absolute disaster for economic development and the future of North Texas.”

-          Dallas Morning News, January 18, 2014

Tapering Signals Year-End Economic Strength Indicators Point to Greater Recovery for 2014

Tapering Signals Year-End Economic Strength Indicators Point to Greater Recovery for 2014 The big "will-they or won't they" ended last month with the Fed's mid-December announcement that it would begin tapering its economic stimulus efforts. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's decision to scale back on Bond and Treasury purchases by $10 billion signaled that the economy has showed sufficient ability to play on its own, albeit, on a kid leash. The Fed's ambivalence towards tapering dominated central banking discussions and created market volatility for most of 2013. Janet Yellen, the Fed's current vice chairman and President Barack Obama's nominee to succeed Bernanke, voted in favor of the policy action, which was bolstered by promising figures in the labor and housing markets. The Year in Housing Housing gained traction in 2013 amid job gains and rising stock values. Residential construction starts soared in November to a five-year high, explaining why builder optimism last month matched its highest level since 2005. Despite robust new construction, sales of previously-owned homes declined for the third consecutive month in November to the lowest level this year, as rising home loan rates and a limited supply of existing properties discouraged homebuyers. Rates could rise even further with Fed tapering. Purchases overall dropped 4.3 percent to a 4.9 million annual rate, in a mid-December report from the National Association of Realtors. The report also showed that the median price of an existing home rose 9.4 percent to $196,300 from $179,400 one year ago. The group still projects 2013 will be the best year for the industry in seven years, with an estimated 5.1 million properties sold. Rising prices and borrowing costs may have put homes out of reach for many first-time buyers and the partial federal government shutdown in October may have delayed some purchase decisions. The Year in Jobs A five-year low in unemployment and a boost in job hirings helped prompt Fed tapering. In what was largely typical year-end activity, applications for U.S. unemployment benefits rose in early December to an almost nine-month high, according to the Labor Department. Gains in payrolls on the other hand lifted consumer confidence and prospects for retailers during the holidays. The U.S. Automotive industry is also hiring, with sales at their best pace since 2007, according to data from Ward Automotive Group. All in all, home loan rates still remain attractive compared to historical levels. If you have any questions about your personal situation or would like to inquire about housing and home loans, please don't hesitate to contact me. I hope you enjoy this month's issue of YOU Magazine.

Texas Market has Massive Influx of New Residents

Texas Market has Massive Influx of New Residents

The Texas housing market is reacting to the massive influx of new residents spurred to move to the Lone Star state in search of high-paying energy and professional service jobs, as well as low cost of living.  As more residents move to Texas from other states with higher median home prices, the housing markets in Dallas, Houston and Austin have been bolstered by rising home prices of double-digit year-over-year growth, according to technology-based real estate brokerage firm Redfin's latest report.  About 2.5 million people relocated to Texas between 2008 and 2012 in search of jobs from more costly regions of the nation, the report stated.  In Dallas, the median list price was $192,500 in October, compared with $389,450 on Long Island and $495,000 in Los Angeles, according to the data.

-          Dallas Business Journal, November 28, 2013

DFW pre-owned home sales up 20 percent in 2013

DFW pre-owned home sales up 20 percent in 2013

Through the third quarter, pre-owned home sales in North Texas are up 20 percent from 2012 levels. And median sales prices are 10 percent higher than they were in the first nine months of last year.  This year’s increase in home sales and prices has propelled the Dallas-Fort Worth pre-owned home market to above where it was before the recession.  But with mortgage rates rising, analysts wonder how much longer the large double-digit gains will continue.  “I keep thinking it’s going to slow down, but it hasn’t so far,” said Dr. James Gaines, an economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “Yes, the rates are higher and the builders may be feeling it a little, but really, the rates are still very good and don’t seem to be hindering sales much.  “Also, if people expect the rates to continue to increase, they’ll buy now rather than wait.”

- Dallas Morning News, October 8, 2013

Market Update! For the week of September 30, 2013

Keeping you updated on the market! For the week of  September 30, 2013

---

MARKET RECAP Lower Mortgage Rates Prevail Mortgage rates can be as difficult to forecast as the flight path of a butterfly, but forecast we do. Last week, we said we expected to see the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fall after the Federal Reserve announced there would be no tapering of quantitative easing. Our forecast was for the rate on the 30-year loan to fall below 4.5%, and possibly trade in the 4.25%-to-4.5% range for the near future. It looks like we got it right. Bankrate.com's latest survey shows the 30-year loan averaged 4.47% nationally. Of course, some local markets didn't see quite that much reduction, while others saw more. But all in all, we are seeing rates lower than we've seen in the past four months. We expect the 30-year loan to hold near today's levels. The fact is that economic growth remains sluggish. The latest and final revision of 2 nd quarter gross domestic product (GDP) shows less growth than expected. The consensus estimate was for GDP to grow at a 2.7% annualized rate, but the final number shows a 2.48% growth rate. Sluggish GDP growth gives the Federal Reserve reason and room to continue buying $40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month. In addition, concerns over a looming federal government shutdown, due to political wrangling over the debt ceiling, will keep interest in Treasury notes and bonds high. Investors are also pondering what impact the Affordable Healthcare Act (Obamacare) will have on businesses when it's implemented next month. In short, there's a lot of uncertainty that will keep investors interested in haven securities like Treasury notes and bonds and MBS. Their interest should help hold mortgage rates at these lower levels. To be sure, we see little impetuous for mortgage rates to move much high. But keep an eye on next Friday's employment report. Should that come in stronger than expected, rates could temporarily spike. On the flip side, if the employment report comes in weaker than expected, rates will move lower. The past couple employment reports have disappointed, so it's likely most economists have proffered less-optimistic predictions. Our crystal ball points to job growth meeting or slightly exceeding exceptions. In that case, we could see an uptick in mortgage rates at the end of the week. But with all the other uncertainties baked into the credit markets, we doubt rates would move meaningfully higher. So we see an extended opportunity to take advantage of lower rates. Keep in mind, though, the long-term bias – an eventual tapering and higher inflation – points to higher mortgage rates down the road. The risk, as we've said so often, remains in procrastinating.

Economic Indicator	Release Date and Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Construction Spending (August)	Tues., Oct. 1, 10:00 am, ET	0.6% (Increase)	Important. Gains in residential spending slowed in recent months, but commercial spending is moving higher.
Mortgage Applications	Wed., Oct. 2, 7:00 am, ET	None	Important. Purchase applications jumped to their highest level since July, which points to strength in underlying home sales.
Factory Orders (August)	Thurs., Oct. 3, 10:00 am, ET	0.3% (Increase)	Moderately Important. Orders remain subdued, thus reflecting sluggish economic growth.
Unemployment Situation (September)	Fri., Oct. 4, 8:30 am, ET	Unemployment Rate: 7.3% Payrolls: 180,000 (Increase)	Very Important. Another month of sluggish job growth and low-employment participation ensures continued quantitative easing.

Laws of Economics Still Work Higher prices bring in more supply; more supply leads to lower prices. This is how things are shaping up in the new-home market. Sales jumped 7.9% to an annual rate of 421,000 units in August. The number of new homes for sale rose 6,000 for the month. Supply stands at five months, a considerable improvement over the 4.6-month supply that prevailed a year ago. More supply – more new homes – means pricing pressure. The median new home price slipped 0.7% to $254,600 in August, marking the fourth-consecutive monthly decline. This follows the news on existing-home sales, which showed a slight downtick in the median price to $212,100. Over the past couple months, we've been warning that price appreciation will likely slow. The latest data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index support our contention. Case-Shiller's 20-city index shows price growth slowed to 0.6% in July, down from 0.9% in the prior two months. Trends don't last in perpetuity, so a slowdown in price-appreciation was (is) inevitable. Because trends don't last in perpetuity, we pounded the table hard in 2010 and 2011 for buyers to get in the game. We were adamant back then because we expected the downward price trend to soon reverse course, which it did. We expect price-appreciation growth to continue to slow. More supply will come to market, because more sellers will see slowing price growth and will want to capture gains. In turn, their actions will further slow price-appreciation growth. That said, if anyone is waiting for slow-to-no price growth, he or she needs to keep in mind that any money saved on a purchase price could easily be offset by higher financing costs.

Dallas Home Prices Now 4% Over the 2006 Boom

Just the Facts

Top Schools Equal Higher Home Prices

An analysis by Redfin illustrates the steep price premiums that homeowners are willing to pay for homes served by top-ranked schools, offering the latest concrete evidence that buyers place remarkable importance on the quality of schools.  Redfin’s study found that buyers pay an average of $50 more per square foot for homes served by top-ranked schools than for those served by average-ranked schools. It also found that, even within the same neighborhoods, buyers will pay substantially more for homes served by top-ranked schools than they do for comparable homes served by average-ranked schools.  The online survey, conducted this summer, found that of those who said school attendance boundaries were important:

* 23.6 percent would pay 1 to 5 percent above budget.

* 20.7 percent would pay 6 to 10 percent above budget.

* 9 percent would pay 11 to 20 percent above budget.

* 40.3 percent would not go above budget.

        -      Inman News, September 25, 2013

Dallas Home Prices Now 4% Over the 2006 Boom

Dallas and Denver are now the two American cities where home prices has reached and surpassed the levels in the 2006-2007 boom.   And price increases are expected to continue into 2014.  Most Americans (55%) think home prices will go up over the next 12 months, according to a new Bankrate.com report.  "It seems like Americans' love affair with real estate has returned," said Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate.com's senior financial analyst.   There is concern on the part of some prospective home buyers that prices may be running away from them, said McBride.   "The housing market is aiding the economic recovery," he said.   

-          Dallas Morning News, September 25, 2013 (excerpts)

All Top 100 Markets Gained in July

The July report for Homes.com showed gains for single-family properties in all 100 markets, up from 87 in the previous reporting period.  The Homes.com Local Market Index has been expanded to include midsized markets ranked from 101-300. It provides a closer look at smaller markets nationwide, showing increases in 293 of the top 300 markets, up from 250 the previous month. Year-over-year, all midsized markets increased.  Rebound data for July 2013 in the top 100 markets revealed that 22 markets across the U.S. are fully recovered – up from the previous month’s 19 markets. Additionally, 44 U.S. markets now show a rebound of 50 percent or more, up from 41 in last month’s report.

-          RISMedia September 25, 2013

Dallas Cowboys to Bring $23.4 Billion to Frisco, Texas

Dallas Cowboys to Bring $23.4 Billion to Frisco

Elizabeth Morris, CEO for Insight Research, recently presented to the Frisco City Council how the Dallas Cowboys mixed use development would impact the region.

Here are the details of the 91 acre project:

• This section alone will add around 400,000 square feet of new commercial space and 50,000 square feet of new restaurant space

• 2 Hotels plan to be developed

• An addition of 4,500 jobs by full development in 12 years which is the year 2026

“The Economic Impact she projected was 23.4 Billion in 30 years!”

She also mentioned that the tax revenue alone will bring the city of Frisco 1.2 Billion in the next 30 years!