Monday, September 30, 2013

Real Estate Sale Forecast 2014 Predicted to be Similar to 2013 in Sales

Just the Facts

All-Cash Deals Make Huge Comeback Nationwide

Call it the summer of the cash sale.  All-cash home purchases skyrocketed during the summer months of 2013, with their share of total sales growing by more than 40 percent from the beginning of June to the end of August, amid sustained appetite from investors, a recent spike in interest rates and tight inventory.  Cash purchases accounted for 45 percent of sales in August, up from the 2013 trough of 32 percent seen in April and May, according to RealtyTrac data provided exclusively to Inman News.  (Note cash sales in Miami almost 80% of sales; in Dallas about 20%.).  Graph below is from Realty Trac 
realtytrac cash sales
2014 to be Similar to 2013 in Sales
Although total existing-home sales this year will be up about 11 percent to nearly 5.2 million, little change is seen in 2014, with sales forecast to increase less than 1 percent. The national median existing-home price should rise 11 to 12 percent for all of 2013, easing to an increase of 5 to 6 percent next year, with general improvement expected in inventory supplies.   Pending home sales slowed in August, with tight inventory conditions, higher interest rates, rising home prices and continuing restrictive mortgage credit impacting the market, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.   Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the decline was expected following elevated levels of closed existing-home sales at the end of summer. “Sharply rising mortgage interest rates in the spring motived buyers to make purchase decisions, culminating in a six-and-a-half-year peak for sales that were finalized last month,” he says. “Moving forward, we expect lower levels of existing-home sales, but tight inventory in many markets will continue to push up home prices in the months ahead.”
-       RISMedia, September 29, 2013