ECONOMYJANUARY 14, 2011
Economists Optimistic on Growth
By PHIL IZZO
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are increasingly optimistic about the pace of the recovery, predicting the U.S. will grow at better than a 3.2% annual rate in each quarter this year.
"The U.S. economy appears to have successfully navigated the adjustment from a recovery driven primarily from economic stimulus and inventory rebuilding to one driven by private domestic demand and rising exports," said economists at Wells Fargo & Co. "Three percent growth looks pretty good, particularly with housing stuck in low gear."
A just-released WSJ survey of leading economists indicates they've turned more optimistic about the outlook for the recovery, despite the dismal housing market. Phil Izzo has details. Plus, will million-dollar art sell online?
Charts and Full Results
See forecasts for growth, unemployment, housing and more. Plus, views on the Fed, taxes and more. Survey conducted Jan. 7-11. (Or download all data as .xls)
Complete Coverage: Forecasting Survey
Economists have steadily grown more upbeat about growth in recent months and boosted their estimates for the fourth quarter of 2010 in this survey. On average, respondents now estimate the U.S. grew 3.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter—up from an estimate last month of 2.6% growth. The economy grew 2.6% in the third quarter.
These upbeat forecasts come despite a persistently bleak outlook for housing. On average, the economists now expect that home prices will post a decline in 2011, after more than 12 months of forecasting modest gains for the current year.
Meanwhile, 30 of the 56 surveyed economists, not all of whom answer every question, say home prices won't outpace inflation for at least the next three years. The excess supply of homes also is seen keeping construction at moribund levels. On average, the economists expect 700,000 housing starts in 2011, above 2010 and 2009 levels, but well below the 1.5 million averaged from 1959 to 2007.
"The labor market weakness is suppressing a housing recovery," said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.
Amid the stronger growth forecasts, economists now expect the U.S. to generate nearly 180,000 jobs a month on average this year, significantly more than last year's average of 94,000. But with continued population growth, that isn't nearly enough to quickly bring down the unemployment rate, now at 9.4%. By the end of 2011, the economists, on average, expect the jobless rate to be 8.8%.
View Full Image
Bloomberg News
Economists are optimistic about the pace of the recovery. Above, shipping containers are stacked at the Port of Houston on Thursday.
About the Survey
The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared. For prior installments of the surveys, see: WSJ.com/Economist.
Persistent weakness in the job market also is expected to keep inflation in check over the course of 2011. On average, the economists expect consumer prices will rise 1.9% this year, within the Federal Reserve's comfort zone of 1.5% to 2%.
The central bank has a dual mandate to promote full employment and maintain price stability. With little pressure on the inflation front and a slow recovery in the job market, most of the economists don't expect the Fed to start raising interest rates until early 2012 at the earliest.
As the recovery moves forward, they expect the central bank to keep mostly to the sidelines. Fifty of 55 respondents predict policy makers will complete a previously announced $600 billion of bond purchases, and stop there. But the policy remains contentious, with just 27 economists supporting the full amount of the program.
The bond purchases "may not have been needed, but [Fed officials] shouldn't give in to critics once they have started," said Jim O'Sullivan of MF Global.
Despite the disagreements over Fed policy, 24 of 40 economists who answered the question gave Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke a grade of A or B, the highest marks among top central bankers. The European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Trichet and the Bank of England's Mervyn King received 22 and 19 grades above a C, respectively. Neither Masaaki Shirakawa of the Bank of Japan nor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China got more than 13 A's and B's.
"All were dealt a tough hand, but Bernanke seems the most innovative," said Bruce Kasman of J.P. Morgan Chase.
The economists also were generally encouraged by President Barack Obama's selection of Bill Daley to succeed Rahm Emanuel as White House chief of staff and Gene Sperling to take over the National Economic Council now that Larry Summers has departed.
Twenty-three of 46 economists said the new team would be better for economic policy, while just one said it would be worse. The remainder expected no significant difference.
Write to Phil Izzo at philip.izzo@wsj.com
Friday, January 14, 2011
5 Tips for Growing Herbs Indoors This Winter
5 Tips for Growing Herbs Indoors This Winter
Written by Kimberley Stakal
ORGANIC AUTHORITY
Yup, it’s officially winter out there. But you still want to grow your culinary herbs, darn it! Don’t fret, you can easily bring your outdoor herbs indoors for the nippy months. We’ve got five simple tips for growing those herbs indoors throughout the winter season.
1) Play Mother Nature with your indoor weather conditions. Healthy plants thrive best with lots of light, so make sure your herbs are exposed to 6 hours of natural light or 14 hours of artificial light. And keep them somewhere where the temperature stays mildly cool to warm — think Seattle. Sixty degrees at night to 70 degrees during the day is ideal for your budding herbs.
2) Location, location, location! House your herbs in the kitchen or bathroom, where they are most likely to stay slightly warm and humid naturally.
3) Love that soil. Keep the soil of your herbs moist, but don’t over water — and never let your plant sit in standing water. The roots will rot! Grow all herbs in a clay pot with holes for drainage. And start with an organic fertilizer for ultra eco-love — or better yet, create your own compost.
4) Wash that plant! Not really. But if your plant becomes infested with insects, which is common with indoor gardening, you can remove them with a soapy plant bath. Fill a large pot or kitchen sink with diluted soapy water, and gently tip the top of your herbs into the water, holding the base of the plant secure with your hands. Give it a few swishes in the soapy water and the pests should be swept away. If your plant is too delicate to turn upside down, use a spray bottle to spray the soapy solution onto the leaves and infected areas.
5) Choose your herbs wisely. Some herbs naturally lend themselves better to indoor growing conditions. Parsley, basil, sage and thyme are known to hold up stronger inside. Extra perk — they are all perfect herb solutions for winter stews, casseroles and roasts. Isn’t it great when those things work out?
Written by Kimberley Stakal
ORGANIC AUTHORITY
Yup, it’s officially winter out there. But you still want to grow your culinary herbs, darn it! Don’t fret, you can easily bring your outdoor herbs indoors for the nippy months. We’ve got five simple tips for growing those herbs indoors throughout the winter season.
1) Play Mother Nature with your indoor weather conditions. Healthy plants thrive best with lots of light, so make sure your herbs are exposed to 6 hours of natural light or 14 hours of artificial light. And keep them somewhere where the temperature stays mildly cool to warm — think Seattle. Sixty degrees at night to 70 degrees during the day is ideal for your budding herbs.
2) Location, location, location! House your herbs in the kitchen or bathroom, where they are most likely to stay slightly warm and humid naturally.
3) Love that soil. Keep the soil of your herbs moist, but don’t over water — and never let your plant sit in standing water. The roots will rot! Grow all herbs in a clay pot with holes for drainage. And start with an organic fertilizer for ultra eco-love — or better yet, create your own compost.
4) Wash that plant! Not really. But if your plant becomes infested with insects, which is common with indoor gardening, you can remove them with a soapy plant bath. Fill a large pot or kitchen sink with diluted soapy water, and gently tip the top of your herbs into the water, holding the base of the plant secure with your hands. Give it a few swishes in the soapy water and the pests should be swept away. If your plant is too delicate to turn upside down, use a spray bottle to spray the soapy solution onto the leaves and infected areas.
5) Choose your herbs wisely. Some herbs naturally lend themselves better to indoor growing conditions. Parsley, basil, sage and thyme are known to hold up stronger inside. Extra perk — they are all perfect herb solutions for winter stews, casseroles and roasts. Isn’t it great when those things work out?
Sexual Healing for Cold & Flu Prevention
Sexual Healing for Cold & Flu Prevention
Written by Jill Ettinger
ORGANIC AUTHORITY
Calling Dr. Love: Welcome to the first in our series on sex. It seems sex is integral to our health! Stay tuned...
Research has shown that frequent sexual activity — having an orgasm at least twice a week — can keep you from getting sick this winter. Individuals who engage in regular sexual activity have been shown to produce higher levels of immunoglobulin (IGA), an anti-body that can prevent susceptibility to catching minor colds and flus.
IGA is the dominant antibody in your body's defense system; it is present in saliva and mucosal lining and works as a barrier at the most common points of entry for germs that make you sick.
In a study conducted by Wilkes-Barre University in Pennsylvania, IGA levels were revealed to be significantly higher — at least 33 percent higher — in people that had regular sex with a partner than those who had less frequent sexual encounters. Regardless of length or the emotional health of the relationships, the benefits as a result of sexual activity were the same in the study participants. Not that we're advocating doing it with just anyone!
The study also revealed that while the higher IGA levels were consistent in couples that had intercourse several times per week, those couples that had "very frequent" sex — more than 3 times per week — demonstrated less potent IGA levels similar to those individuals who had no sexual activity.
So next time you're in the mood, you can simply tell your partner you need to have sex because you don't want to catch the cough that's been going around the office. Or, if you're not in the mood because you’ve done it twice already that week, you won't need to blame it on a headache; just remind your sweetie that too much sex is as bad for your immune system as not enough.
Stay in touch with Jill on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jille
Written by Jill Ettinger
ORGANIC AUTHORITY
Calling Dr. Love: Welcome to the first in our series on sex. It seems sex is integral to our health! Stay tuned...
Research has shown that frequent sexual activity — having an orgasm at least twice a week — can keep you from getting sick this winter. Individuals who engage in regular sexual activity have been shown to produce higher levels of immunoglobulin (IGA), an anti-body that can prevent susceptibility to catching minor colds and flus.
IGA is the dominant antibody in your body's defense system; it is present in saliva and mucosal lining and works as a barrier at the most common points of entry for germs that make you sick.
In a study conducted by Wilkes-Barre University in Pennsylvania, IGA levels were revealed to be significantly higher — at least 33 percent higher — in people that had regular sex with a partner than those who had less frequent sexual encounters. Regardless of length or the emotional health of the relationships, the benefits as a result of sexual activity were the same in the study participants. Not that we're advocating doing it with just anyone!
The study also revealed that while the higher IGA levels were consistent in couples that had intercourse several times per week, those couples that had "very frequent" sex — more than 3 times per week — demonstrated less potent IGA levels similar to those individuals who had no sexual activity.
So next time you're in the mood, you can simply tell your partner you need to have sex because you don't want to catch the cough that's been going around the office. Or, if you're not in the mood because you’ve done it twice already that week, you won't need to blame it on a headache; just remind your sweetie that too much sex is as bad for your immune system as not enough.
Stay in touch with Jill on Twitter: www.twitter.com/jille
16 Foods that Naturally Boost Your Metabolism
16 Foods that Naturally Boost Your Metabolism
Written by Brianne DiSylvester
ORGANIC AUTHORITY
Diet, schmiet. Ditch your strict eating regimen and give your metabolism a boost by eating. Yes, eating! Just by consuming certain drinks and foods, you can give your body a kick-start in calorie burning, and speed up that seemingly slow metabolism of yours. Here’s how…
What to Eat:
Almonds: Although high in calories (don’t overdo it), they contain fatty acids that raise your metabolism.
Apples and Pears: High fiber makes you burn more calories.
Beans: High protein + high fiber = more calories burned.
Broccoli: Calcium and vitamin C create a metabolism-rising duo.
Cinnamon: Add it to sugary drinks and foods to help your body better metabolize sweets.
Coffee: Caffeine gives your mind, body and metabolism a boost. Don’t exceed 2-3 cups a day.
Curry: Since it’s spicy, your body will work hard to metabolize it and give your calorie burning a boost.
Grapefruit: Lowers insulin levels and burns calories by breaking down the fiber.
Green Tea: EGCG speeds up your brain and nervous system, thus burning more calories.
Hot Peppers and Jalapenos: For hours after you eat them, these spicy peppers will speed up your heart rate and metabolism while burning calories.
Lean Turkey: Protein builds muscle and helps to burn calories since your body is working harder to process it.
Low-Fat Yogurt: Breaking down the high protein level burns calories and the probiotic cultures regulate digestion.
Oatmeal: Again high fiber means more calories are being burned while your body breaks it down.
Spinach: Speeds up your metabolism, plus it’s high in vitamin C, antioxidants and iron.
Unsweetened Soy Milk: Tons of calcium ups your metabolism.
Water: Your body’s metabolic rate will increase by 30 percent by drinking 17 ounces of water.
Now, unfortunately we don’t just want to gorge ourselves on these items. An efficient metabolism is all within the method...
How to Eat It:
Focus on low-glycemic foods that keep your blood sugar and insulin levels steady.
Eat the recommended amount of calories (calculate it) for your body type and activity. Eating too few, in addition to exercising, causes your body to go into starvation mode which slows down your metabolism.
Nosh every 3-5 hours. This will help maintain a fast metabolism. Plus, you’ll never be overly hungry and risk overeating.
Eat smaller portions. Each time your digestive system starts to work, you burn calories.
Add lean protein to every meal (3 oz) or snack (1 oz). The protein builds muscle, tells your brain to stop eating, and increases your metabolism since your body is working harder to digest it.
Work out. Try strength training 3 times a week… it boosts your metabolism.
Written by Brianne DiSylvester
ORGANIC AUTHORITY
Diet, schmiet. Ditch your strict eating regimen and give your metabolism a boost by eating. Yes, eating! Just by consuming certain drinks and foods, you can give your body a kick-start in calorie burning, and speed up that seemingly slow metabolism of yours. Here’s how…
What to Eat:
Almonds: Although high in calories (don’t overdo it), they contain fatty acids that raise your metabolism.
Apples and Pears: High fiber makes you burn more calories.
Beans: High protein + high fiber = more calories burned.
Broccoli: Calcium and vitamin C create a metabolism-rising duo.
Cinnamon: Add it to sugary drinks and foods to help your body better metabolize sweets.
Coffee: Caffeine gives your mind, body and metabolism a boost. Don’t exceed 2-3 cups a day.
Curry: Since it’s spicy, your body will work hard to metabolize it and give your calorie burning a boost.
Grapefruit: Lowers insulin levels and burns calories by breaking down the fiber.
Green Tea: EGCG speeds up your brain and nervous system, thus burning more calories.
Hot Peppers and Jalapenos: For hours after you eat them, these spicy peppers will speed up your heart rate and metabolism while burning calories.
Lean Turkey: Protein builds muscle and helps to burn calories since your body is working harder to process it.
Low-Fat Yogurt: Breaking down the high protein level burns calories and the probiotic cultures regulate digestion.
Oatmeal: Again high fiber means more calories are being burned while your body breaks it down.
Spinach: Speeds up your metabolism, plus it’s high in vitamin C, antioxidants and iron.
Unsweetened Soy Milk: Tons of calcium ups your metabolism.
Water: Your body’s metabolic rate will increase by 30 percent by drinking 17 ounces of water.
Now, unfortunately we don’t just want to gorge ourselves on these items. An efficient metabolism is all within the method...
How to Eat It:
Focus on low-glycemic foods that keep your blood sugar and insulin levels steady.
Eat the recommended amount of calories (calculate it) for your body type and activity. Eating too few, in addition to exercising, causes your body to go into starvation mode which slows down your metabolism.
Nosh every 3-5 hours. This will help maintain a fast metabolism. Plus, you’ll never be overly hungry and risk overeating.
Eat smaller portions. Each time your digestive system starts to work, you burn calories.
Add lean protein to every meal (3 oz) or snack (1 oz). The protein builds muscle, tells your brain to stop eating, and increases your metabolism since your body is working harder to digest it.
Work out. Try strength training 3 times a week… it boosts your metabolism.
Home and wealth Newsletters
Things to know about buying a home now...
With the start of the new year, there's lots of talk about where home prices, mortgage rates and home sales in general are headed. If you're thinking about buying a home in the near future, here are some points to ponder:
Prices are now at all-time lows. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) housing affordability index, home prices are more affordable now than during any other time in our history going back to 1970. In addition, this time of year is especially good for buyers, because activity has slowed down. The school year in full swing and the holiday season cuts the number of active buyers, so sellers are especially motivated to make a deal.
It's a good time to buy if you plan to stay awhile. A home is still a good investment, just don't expect the house you buy today to deliver a big jump in value right away. The NAR's chief economist says, "Despite very attractive affordability conditions, a housing market recovery will likely be slow and gradual...." But if you plan to stay in your home more than a few years, your investment should beat inflation. According to Department of Labor statistics, for the ten years from 7/1/2000 to 6/30/2010, the average home increased in price 3.4% per year in the US. Inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) went up 2.4% per year in the same period.
Mortgage rates are still at historic lows. National average mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history. You may have heard about rates inching up a little lately, but "inching" is truly the operative word. National average mortgage rates are still below where they were at the start of last year. The important thing to remember is that lower rates increase your buying power by allowing you to qualify for a larger loan amount.
You're in the driver's seat. It's still a buyer's market, so many sellers are prepared to negotiate to close the sale and move on with their lives. Price and appliances for instance are all things that can be up for discussion – you just have to test the waters. But remember, when home prices stabilize and start to head up, sellers won't be in the same bargaining mood. At that point, sellers could regain the upper hand as buyers compete with each other to purchase before prices go up more.
Don't forget the tax benefits. Buying a home gives you some nice tax breaks. Interest on your mortgage and real estate taxes are both tax deductable. If you pay points to reduce your loan's interest rate, that money may also be deductible. Please consult with a tax advisor to find out how these deductions apply to your circumstances.
You want choice? Now you've got it! In many areas of the country, home buyers are feeling like kids in a candy store. There are many nice options to explore. Just don't get overwhelmed. Figure out what you want in a home, a neighborhood that's right and what you can afford to pay – then go enjoy the shopping experience.
It's easy to get started. The first thing to do is to get qualified for a mortgage. This tells you how much money a lender is willing to loan you, so you know exactly what you can afford. Being qualified also strengthens your position when making an offer because the seller knows you're a pre-approved borrower. Please contact us and we'd be happy to help you through this process.
There may never be a better time to buy. One thing's for sure, mortgage rates and home prices won't stay at these historic levels forever. When you find a home you fall in love with, don't let it get away. Remember, you want the best home, not just the best deal, and holding off on a purchase for things to improve, could lose you the home of your dreams.
Feel free to call or email us about these or any matters relating to home financing or refinancing. We're glad to talk further about any of these topics... Have a great day!
With the start of the new year, there's lots of talk about where home prices, mortgage rates and home sales in general are headed. If you're thinking about buying a home in the near future, here are some points to ponder:
Prices are now at all-time lows. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) housing affordability index, home prices are more affordable now than during any other time in our history going back to 1970. In addition, this time of year is especially good for buyers, because activity has slowed down. The school year in full swing and the holiday season cuts the number of active buyers, so sellers are especially motivated to make a deal.
It's a good time to buy if you plan to stay awhile. A home is still a good investment, just don't expect the house you buy today to deliver a big jump in value right away. The NAR's chief economist says, "Despite very attractive affordability conditions, a housing market recovery will likely be slow and gradual...." But if you plan to stay in your home more than a few years, your investment should beat inflation. According to Department of Labor statistics, for the ten years from 7/1/2000 to 6/30/2010, the average home increased in price 3.4% per year in the US. Inflation measured by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) went up 2.4% per year in the same period.
Mortgage rates are still at historic lows. National average mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history. You may have heard about rates inching up a little lately, but "inching" is truly the operative word. National average mortgage rates are still below where they were at the start of last year. The important thing to remember is that lower rates increase your buying power by allowing you to qualify for a larger loan amount.
You're in the driver's seat. It's still a buyer's market, so many sellers are prepared to negotiate to close the sale and move on with their lives. Price and appliances for instance are all things that can be up for discussion – you just have to test the waters. But remember, when home prices stabilize and start to head up, sellers won't be in the same bargaining mood. At that point, sellers could regain the upper hand as buyers compete with each other to purchase before prices go up more.
Don't forget the tax benefits. Buying a home gives you some nice tax breaks. Interest on your mortgage and real estate taxes are both tax deductable. If you pay points to reduce your loan's interest rate, that money may also be deductible. Please consult with a tax advisor to find out how these deductions apply to your circumstances.
You want choice? Now you've got it! In many areas of the country, home buyers are feeling like kids in a candy store. There are many nice options to explore. Just don't get overwhelmed. Figure out what you want in a home, a neighborhood that's right and what you can afford to pay – then go enjoy the shopping experience.
It's easy to get started. The first thing to do is to get qualified for a mortgage. This tells you how much money a lender is willing to loan you, so you know exactly what you can afford. Being qualified also strengthens your position when making an offer because the seller knows you're a pre-approved borrower. Please contact us and we'd be happy to help you through this process.
There may never be a better time to buy. One thing's for sure, mortgage rates and home prices won't stay at these historic levels forever. When you find a home you fall in love with, don't let it get away. Remember, you want the best home, not just the best deal, and holding off on a purchase for things to improve, could lose you the home of your dreams.
Feel free to call or email us about these or any matters relating to home financing or refinancing. We're glad to talk further about any of these topics... Have a great day!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)